Bitcoin is getting “boring”: falling volatility could open more Wall Street doors, says JPMorgan

September 1, 2025 (IST): Bitcoin’s trademark wild swings are narrowing. Three- and six-month rolling volatility has dropped to historically low levels—even as BTC set fresh highs in May, July, and August. JPMorgan strategists say a key driver is that corporate treasuries now hold 6%+ of bitcoin’s total supply, dampening swings and deepening liquidity.

At a glance

• Volatility slump: Multi-month BTC volatility near cycle lows.
• Why: Corporates steadily accumulating BTC; ETFs/futures broaden the holder base.
• JPMorgan view: Lower volatility could make BTC more attractive versus gold for some allocators.
• Price check: ~$108k–$109k in the latest session referenced.

What’s cooling BTC’s swings

• Corporate balance sheets: Since 2020, firms led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have accumulated sizeable BTC. This year, public & private companies stepped up purchases, with July seeing corporates accounting for nearly two-thirds of big-buyer flows in one report.
• ETF & futures plumbing: Listed products and futures have drawn in pensions, RIAs, and macro funds, increasing market depth and making price discovery less jumpy.
• Broader holder mix: From exchange-traded vehicles to corporates and even some governments, a more diverse base can suppress realized volatility.

Policy tailwinds in 2025

• Retirement plans: An executive action in August directed agencies to remove barriers to offering alternatives, including crypto, in certain 401(k)-style plans.
• Stablecoins & banks: A new law enables U.S. banks to issue dollar-pegged stablecoins, with large banks signaling interest.
• Mortgage assets: FHFA asked Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore ways to count crypto holdings as assets on mortgage applications.

Corporate treasury wave

Beyond Strategy, names cited in recent reports include Trump Media & Technology Group, GameStop, and Japan’s Metaplanet. Roughly ~180 companies have tried some form of the “buy BTC, finance with debt/equity” play; about a quarter of those stocks recently traded below the market value of the BTC they hold, highlighting dispersion in outcomes.

Why “boring” helps Wall Street

• Portfolio math: Lower realized volatility improves risk-adjusted metrics (e.g., Sharpe), widening the pool of allocators who can underwrite exposure.
• Gold analog: If volatility keeps falling, some macro investors may view BTC as a more competitive digital-gold substitute or complement.
• Market structure: Deeper derivatives and ETP markets help hedging and basis trades, further anchoring price moves.

Caveats & risks

• Policy reversals: Rules can tighten; cross-agency interpretations aren’t uniform.
• Concentration risk: Corporate treasuries owning a large slice may amplify moves if they rebalance.
• Crypto idiosyncrasies: Exchange risks, stablecoin liquidity, and headline shocks can re-inflate volatility quickly.

Note: Figures and quotes reflect the latest reporting and analyst commentary referenced in this piece. Crypto markets are volatile; this article is not investment advice.